This is a good one. Not much comment from myslef is required. Please read on:
Riding Down the Curve: How Cities Can Survive the Energy Crisis (Peak Oil, Part III)
Special Report
If cities don't plan for the coming energy crisis, many will not survive it.
By Ryan McGreal
Part I of this series made the case for oil peak production some time between now and, say a decade from now. Part II examined the likely candidates to replace oil, concluding that none possess oil's density, portability, and versatility. Part III begins the process of examining what cities can do to prepare for oil scarcity.
The calculus of the oil economy is relatively simple: if the oil infrastructure can continue bringing oil to market fast enough to meet market demand, then the economy will continue to tick along as it has. If, however, the rate of oil production maxes out but demand keeps growing, then the price of oil will keep rising until it gets high enough to push demand down to what the industry can provide.
So far, the oil industry is still putting out, and market demand is still growing. In fact, part of the recent jolt in oil prices has been due to a lack of refining capacity, not a shortage coming out of the ground. However, it does appear that the oil industry is at or approaching an absolute limit to the rate at which it can produce oil (see sidebar: Are We In Peak Oil Today?).
At the same time, a higher proportion of the crude oil on today's market is "sour" and "heavy", meaning it requires more refining before it is of use. This is consistent with the Peak Oil hypothesis, which holds that "sweet", "light" crude (the low-lying fruit of the petroleum garden) will be used up first, leaving the lower quality, more expensive stuff for later. According to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons, "Almost 90 percent of new oil projects produce oil that is either sour, heavy, or both." (Energy Bulletin, March 1, 2005)
In any case, oil prices are nowhere near high enough to make a serious dent in global demand. Demand growth has slowed this year, but demand is still growing, especially in China. Although China consumes much less oil than America, its growth rate is much higher. At current trends, China will surpass America as the world's biggest oil consumer by 2023 (see sidebar: A Strangling Embrace).
Short Term Prices
Barring some major disruption to the oil supply, prices will probably fall over the next three weeks as the summer "driving season" winds down and demand for gasoline eases temporarily. However, even as the cyclical aggravator fades, the underlying supply constraint will come back to haunt prices every time either demand cycles up toward the production limit or an unexpected event disrupts even a small percentage of total production.
The economy is still growing, and demand for oil is still going to be higher this year than it was last year. Next year, when global demand has risen another two percent, the strain on our oil infrastructure will be that much worse. Blinkered analysts will insist again the the problem is cyclical, not systematic, failing to see the emerging pattern.
So far, rising oil prices haven't brought on a recession in North America, but there are plenty of reasons to suspect that growth here must stall sooner or later:
US consumer spending has been growing faster than income for some years. This cannot continue forever. Inflation is starting to return to the US economy due to the rising price of energy.
The US Federal Reserve has been increasing the prime rate slowly but steadily this year, and this will soon eat into consumers' ability to keep borrowing as credit card, home equity lines of credit, and adjustable rate mortgage payments go up.
Much of the boom is related to the US housing market, which shows every sign of being in a serious bubble. Banks are already resorting to negative amortization packages and mortgages to illegal aliens to keep people buying, which smacks of desperation.
This summer's blip in US auto sales is due only to deep discounts that the automakers won't be able to maintain for long. The big three are in deep financial trouble and remain profitable only in their finance divisions. Overall, sales of SUVs have stagnated and resale values are falling as drivers try to unload their gas-guzzlers.
The US economy is still growing, but growth is slowing in response to both rising interest rates and rising oil prices.
Consumers are accustomed to "feeling rich" and living on credit, which has eroded personal savings. The consumer savings rate is zero, down from ten percent in 1982.
Beyond that, the potential for a major supply disruption has never been higher:
Refineries are running full-bore and straining their antiquated machinery to the limit. Unscheduled shutdowns have already brought the airline industry to the brink of jet fuel shortages.
Saudi Arabia is at grave risk of both a collapse in the output of the legendary Ghawar oilfield and a major terrorist attack. Either event will send a shock through oil markets.
Iran and the United States seem destined for a collision as Teheran rolls out its "oil bourse", an alternate pricing mechanism based on euros instead of dollars. (See sidebar: Iran In the Crosshairs)
Seasonal hurricane risks are still a potential disruption.
Even if a major disruption doesn't occur, supplies will become increasingly constrained from one year to the next, until the year arrives when production simply cannot meet demand growth any more.
I've already written a little on what individuals can do to insulate themselves from energy scarcity, but what can cities do to prepare for coming scarcity?
Transportation
Seventy percent of the oil consumed in North America is used for transportation, mostly on our surface network of roads, highways, and private automobiles. The other thirty percent goes into plastics, asphalt, and other miscellaneous uses. It will not be possible to go on using oil this way, which means by extension that it will not be possible to go on using cars as our main transportation mode.
Hybrid cars will not save our road network as the global oil supply continues to decline. Nor will hydrogen-powered hypercars or biodiesel cars (biodiesel is actually a net energy sink, since more fossil fuel energy goes into growing the feedstock than the biodiesel produces). Most of these will probably continue in some form or another in increasingly narrow niches.
No single fuel system can replace our continent-wide, internal combustion, gas-powered engine system. Even if a breakthrough was made in battery technology and cars could all shift to electric power, there will not be enough electricity to power our lights, appliances, gadgets, and vehicles. No matter what we do, we will end up with a patchwork of incompatible systems and fuel sources at much higher unit costs. The car will lose a lot of its lustre as a mass transportation vehicle in that case.
However, even if two- and three-car families become rare, our road network will still exist. Whatever means we use to get around will have to find ways to leverage that network. There will be a number of ways to do this, but the following seem obvious:
First of all, stop investing tens or hundreds of millions of new dollars into expanding highway infrastructure. Instead, develop light rail systems for intra-urban transportation between distant points in the city.
Transform existing highways into rail lines. Governments will still own the rights-of-way, and trains are ten times more efficient than vehicles for transporting people and goods long distances.
Share city streets for pedestrians, cyclists, skateboarders, etc., as well as cars.
Land Use and Building
Transportation and land-use are intricately connected. It's not enough to change the streets themselves; cities must also change the building patterns that streets serve. A year and a half ago, in an op-ed for the Hamilton Spectator, I wrote of the suburbs, "First, we must stop the hemorrhaging." This is even more true in the context of energy depletion. Sprawl simultaneously forces car-based transportation and destroys local farmland.
Low-density, use-segregated building guarantees that people will live far from the amenities and services they need to live. Without local groceries, corner stores, etc., residents have no choice but to drive to distant supermarkets. Public transit is not viable in sprawl, because the population density is too low to make buses or light rail cost-effective. There are literally not enough people living within walking distance of a transit line to justify the cost.
Governments must:
Throw out their zoning regulations that encourage sprawl, like use separation, deep set-backs, parking requirements, etc.
Change building codes to require more energy efficient building design (see below).
Draw firm urban boundaries. Instead of subsidizing developers who build on farmland, cities must encourage developers to build on brownfields, restore old buildings, and allow different uses to coexist. This brings people closer to their destinations and reduces the need for both private and public transportation.
Eliminate hidden "free" parking regulations and other subsidies that encourage people to drive even short distances.
Calm traffic by making streets two-way, lowering speed limits, adding bike lanes, widening sidewalks, etc. This discourages driving and makes it easier for people to choose different modes.
Ban drive-thrus and other building models that force the primacy of driving.
Invest in public transportation options like light rail systems, which are more energy efficient than buses.
Heating and Cooling
We need to build new houses with efficiency in mind. It absolutely boggles the mind that robust and practical conservation targets haven't been standardized in our building codes. There's simply no reason for continuing to build houses with inefficient hot water tanks and forced-air furnaces.
Instead, new houses should include pilotless on-demand water heaters and radiant floor heating at the very least. Europe has built this way for years, and they reduce energy demand by over a half. Instead, North American builders continue to follow the tried-and-untrue practice of assuming energy costs don't matter.
Canadian natural gas production will peak in 2010, after which conventional gas will become progressively scarcer. Even if we manage to build an infrastructure of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipping from offshore and other continents, gas will be much more expensive and subject to supply interruptions than it is now.
Active solar heating, in which roof panels collect solar energy to heat water, is still quite expensive and inefficient, but passive solar heating, in which the house is built with large, south-facing windows and materials that absorb heat throughout the day and release it slowly at night. In summer months, the house is kept cool with shading, ventilation, wing walls (which catch natural breezes), house fans, and thermal chimneys.
It is expensive to retrofit existing houses to improve their passive solar design (and governments should be providing incentives for homeowners and landlords to improve energy efficiency instead of providing incentives for developers to build more sprawling subdivisions), but there's no excuse not to build new houses this way, especially in urban in-fill projects. City residential lots tend to be taller and narrower, squeezing more houses into a smaller area. This has numerous benefits over the more horizontal suburban model, from higher population density and better street life and neighbor interaction to improved energy efficiency through the "huddle effect" of crowding the houses together.
The means to build much better houses exists, but the political will is too often lacking. Given encouragement, efficient building can flourish. In 2000, the City of Chicago's Department of Environment and Department of Housing sponsored a competition to build an affordable green house. One of the finalists was Esherick Homsey Dodge & Davis entry Factor 10, a 1,200 square foot, two-story house on an urban lot that uses only one tenth the energy of a conventional house.
Starting with a thermal foundation and super-insulated walls, Factor 10 also includes a whole house fan for cooling and solar chimney that pushes warm air into the house during winter. It also has a green roof of sedum to absorb heat and insulate the roof, an array of sealed water bottles on the north side that act as a heat sink, and an open, cross-ventilated floor plan. Plumbing is all low-flow, with dual-flush toilets.
The house was designed as part of the city's affordable housing project, so it was designed to be comparable in price to conventionally built houses. Again, there's no reason why every new house cannot be built to similar standards of efficiency. Rather than scrambling to secure new sources of energy, we could be making much better use of our existing sources and saving plenty of money.
Electricity Grid
The electricity grid will also be increasingly strained in the coming decades. Natural gas fired power plants provide much of North America's electricity, but Canadian natural gas production will peak around 2010, after which the growing shortfall will have to be supplied elsewhere.
Over the past fifteen years, the United States bet the farm on natural gas, using it directly for heating and indirectly for producing electricity. Ten years go, the consensus view was that natural gas supplies were adequate to last decades. Since then, demand has surged at unprecedented rates, and America's reserves abruptly peaked. Canada will peak soon, and Mexico doesn't have as much gas as analysts had predicted. That spells trouble over the medium term.
Right now, half of Canada's natural gas is being exported to the United States. According to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Canada is not allowed to reduce its natural gas exports without also reducing its own domestic use, guaranteeing the US will continue to have premium access to Canadian gas, despite the fact that the US government still refuses to accept the recent unanimous ruling of the NAFTA arbitration panel that it must lift countervailing duties against incoming Canadian softwood and pay back $5 billion in unfair penalties against Canadian lumber exporters.
As a result, we can expect increasing pressure to build more coal-fired and nuclear power plants to make up the shortfall from declining domestic natural gas. Both options come with serious problems.
Coal is cheap and abundant but dirty, and a significant increase in the number of coal-fired power plants contribute to air quality problems, anthropocentric climate change, and toxic, even radioactive, waste. The so-called "scrubbers" touted by the coal lobby only reduce air pollution, and they do so at the expense of energy productivity. As energy scarcity escalates, the pressure will be on to exempt power plants from air quality regulations.
Nuclear power, by contrast, is colossally expensive, and the cost will only increase as high quality fuel is depleted and the fuel costs of mining, refining, and transporting nuclear fuel, not to mention building nuclear power plants, go up. The total EROEI of nuclear power, accounting for plant construction, monitoring and safety, and decommissioning, is actually quite poor. Nuclear power may, however, enjoy massive subsidies from governments desperate to appear decisive in meeting the public's demand for abundant energy.
There are ways to stabilize the electricity grid, at least in the short and medium term:
Wind turbines have an important role to play, as the cost per kilowatt hour is becoming increasingly competitive. With smart investments now, Canada may one day generate a significant share of its electricity through renewable wind power. Bear in mind also that constructing wind turbines requires the use of oil, so our ability to construct renewable energy infrastructure in the future will be constrained even as our current energy infrastructure declines.
Encourage conservation. The easiest way to "produce" more electricity is to use less. Ontario's electricity deregulation scheme of the 1990s was supposed to accomplish this, but consumption continues to increase (see sidebar: Electricity Deregulation). The government's planned "smart meters" should help considerably, since they charge residents variable rates per kilowatt-hour depending on time of day. This will encourage people to move non-essential activities, like laundry and dishwashing, to off-peak hours. This way, the grid can get away with a lower peak capacity. Similarly, renters who currently pay all-inclusive bills should be billed separately for energy. A recent study found that apartment buildings which split energy bills out of rent saw consumption go down by a third. For every three apartment buildings that do this, enough energy will be conserved to power a fourth building.
Encourage intertie production. Buildings that generate their own power can tie it back into the grid. If a building produces more electricity than it uses, then the meter runs backward and the power company pays the producer.
Conclusion
To be honest, none of these recommendations will prevent the severe disruptions and dislocations that will accompany post-peak oil production. At best, they may provide a way for cities to cushion the blow and reduce economic and social exposure to the energy crisis.
The biggest obstacle to energy independence is the massive proliferation of sprawl: low-density, use-separated development far from the centre of town, often on prime farmland. The loss of the best land means cities are more dependent on poorer quality farmland that not only needs big inputs of petroleum based fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation, but also is more susceptible to crop failure due to changing climate. At the same time, the built environment is extremely difficult to live in and navigate without private vehicles.
Raise the Hammer is currently engaged in a project to explore ways that cities might retrofit sprawl to make it livable without cars. We will publish our report in an upcoming issue.
Wednesday, August 24, 2005
Gas Gripes from Consumers
Here are are some good points and practical ideas.
Gas gripes: readers speak upReaders weigh in on how rising prices at the pump have taken a toll on their lives.August 24, 2005: 4:36 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - To cope with rising gas prices, some people are driving less -- or changing vehicles. Some are cutting back elsewhere in their budgets. Some are taking more drastic measures. And with gasoline rising to an average of about $2.60 a gallon -- and oil prices staying high -- it doesn't look like prices at the pump will retreat anytime soon.
CNN/Money invited readers to write in and share stories about how they are coping.
Here's a sampling of Wednesday's responses (see Tuesday's gripes here):
Lighten up and cross your fingers..."To increase the fuel economy of my minivan I now store the third row (removable) seats and full size spare in my garage. I figure I'm getting 3 percent or 4 percent extra MPG not carting the extra bulk around every day. When was the last time I got a flat tire anyway? (Jinx !)" -- Jonathan A.
Gas jumps, time to move..."I moved to a new apartment so that I could walk to work, and shorten my wife's drive. We've gotten our daily mileage down from 80 to 20, but we live in a more dangerous and noisy neighborhood." -- Doug M.
"I loved the space and privacy of living outside town. I drive a Toyota so I get pretty good gas mileage. But as gas prices kept climbing, I found myself with less and less money to pay more important bills. Last month I moved back to the city. I miss my country home." Lori G.
No more guzzling..."I went from an SUV at 15-18 miles to the gallon to an Escort Station Wagon at 30-35 miles to the gallon. I doubled my miles and still get where I am going on time. SUV is parked for the time being." -- Vera
"I have a 2002 GMC 4-wheel drive pickup truck that we took anytime we needed to go somewhere. Now, we always take the wife's 1991 Ford Festiva. Unlike the truck, it doesn't have air or cruise or a CD player, but 45 miles per gallon trumps the amenities."
Banding together..."Gas prices a problem? I'm way ahead of the game! I commute 80 miles per day and use about 1/2 gal of gas per day and at least half the time I read or take a nap! How do I do it? I van-pool with six others. We are trying to find three others so we can fill a Dodge Sprinter diesel passenger van and burn bio-diesel." -- Charlie S.
Slimming down..."To cope with ridiculous gas prices, I have cut back on how much I eat. And I no longer buy soft drinks but now drink tap water only. If it goes much higher, I will walk to the grocery store and give up on going to Costco." -- Ron G.
Going hybrid..."I recently got a new job for which I have to commute almost 90 miles everyday. Initially, we had Acura giving us 30 to 33 miles/gallon. But looking at gas-prices, we decided to go for a Toyota-Prius hybrid car. It's the best decision we ever made. I just have to make one trip per week to the gas station as I am getting almost 51 miles/gallon. Every time I drive by a SUV or a Hummer, I think, poor guys must be spending a fortune every week just to show off. -- Nitu C.
Check back for more reader responses. And send us your story at gasprices@cnn.com.
Thursday, August 18, 2005
Peak Oil & Car Pools
I think we are the only country where 76% of the working population drives solo in their vehicle to work. This article discusses how the Internet can be used to organized a national car pool system. I don't agree with how this individual wishes to implement such a program, but the concept is worth consideration.
http://www.fcnp.com/524/peakoil.htm
http://www.fcnp.com/524/peakoil.htm
Monday, August 15, 2005
250 Miles Per Gallon
With big oil in the pocket of our beloved Federal government, do not expect to see proactive measures to decrease oil consumption from the Sludge House. The wonderful thing about this country is our innovators will offer tangible solutions, and the only way we will move in the direction of alternative vehicles is when we are compelled to do so – vise a vi $5 per gallon of gasoline.
As long as we have options, we will be ok. Let’s save the oil for agriculture, medicine, emergency vehicles, construction, aviation, interstate trucking, and happy meal toys. Soon enough those industries can be weaned.
If you think about it, the combustion engine is over 100 years old. Isn’t it time for new technology? Do our trains run on coal? (Insert angry mob chant) HELL NO! Are our plain's fuselages still made from cloth? HELL NO!! Then let's make the combustion engine obsolete! Come on!! Whose with me?!?! Let's go streaking!!!
Ok that was fun, but on a more serious note:
Monrovia-based Energy CS has converted two Priuses to get up to 230 mpg by using powerful lithium ion batteries. It is forming a new company, EDrive Systems, that will convert hybrids to plug-ins for about $12,000 starting next year, company vice president Greg Hanssen said. Save some money shorty! You can get some serious mileage off your ride!
This technology will be available much quicker than President’s Bush’s desire to push Hydrogen vehicles. According to the article below, "They'd rather work on something that won't be in their lifetime, and that's this hydrogen economy stuff," University of California, Davis, engineering professor Andy Frank said. "They pick this kind of target to get the public off their back, essentially."
In fact it looks like modified hybrid technology is available now.
Check out this CNN article about what some tinkerers are doing to their hybrids.
http://us.cnn.com/2005/TECH/08/15/hybrid.tinkerers.ap/index.html
As long as we have options, we will be ok. Let’s save the oil for agriculture, medicine, emergency vehicles, construction, aviation, interstate trucking, and happy meal toys. Soon enough those industries can be weaned.
If you think about it, the combustion engine is over 100 years old. Isn’t it time for new technology? Do our trains run on coal? (Insert angry mob chant) HELL NO! Are our plain's fuselages still made from cloth? HELL NO!! Then let's make the combustion engine obsolete! Come on!! Whose with me?!?! Let's go streaking!!!
Ok that was fun, but on a more serious note:
Monrovia-based Energy CS has converted two Priuses to get up to 230 mpg by using powerful lithium ion batteries. It is forming a new company, EDrive Systems, that will convert hybrids to plug-ins for about $12,000 starting next year, company vice president Greg Hanssen said. Save some money shorty! You can get some serious mileage off your ride!
This technology will be available much quicker than President’s Bush’s desire to push Hydrogen vehicles. According to the article below, "They'd rather work on something that won't be in their lifetime, and that's this hydrogen economy stuff," University of California, Davis, engineering professor Andy Frank said. "They pick this kind of target to get the public off their back, essentially."
In fact it looks like modified hybrid technology is available now.
Check out this CNN article about what some tinkerers are doing to their hybrids.
http://us.cnn.com/2005/TECH/08/15/hybrid.tinkerers.ap/index.html
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Shorty's Hybrid
Two good friends of mine who have out done me inspired this article. This goes out to “G-Man” and “Shorty”. Shorty emails me saying that I may have somehow inspired her and her husband, G-Man, to purchase a hybrid vehicle. They put thought into action and after two days of shopping, the lovely couple and their darling daughter, “Sweets”, purchased a brand new 2005 Ford Escape Hybrid.
When shorty arrived at a friend’s house I didn’t even bother with subtleties. I pushed her aside (Yeah whatever, move…) and I went straight for the “Green” SUV. It was about mid-sized, similar to an Isuzu Rodeo. The engine had some gadgetry I was unfamiliar with, and the fairly large battery was nestled in the back bed of the vehicle. “The battery is designed to crumble and not spill it’s contents during an impact.” G-Man exclaimed. He was obviously proud of the safety features. I kicked the tires. Check! “Let’s take it for a spin!”
When the hybrid ignition switch is turned no sound of a starting engine is made. That’s because it switches to electric when idling and stays in electric mode until it accelerates to about 25 miles per hour. The vehicle can cruise on complete electric at about 20 miles per hour. The hybrid senses how hard one presses on the throttle, and if you press firmly the gas system will initiate for extra punch. We drove around the neighborhood and it handled just like a normal SUV. It drives much like a tautly suspended sedan, with little body roll and responsive steering.
Here is an excerpt why my friend likes her new ride:
I feel like it does a few things:
1) It makes a personal statement about our beliefs in alternative sources of energy. Just today, I could not contain the twinges of righteousness as my electric battery clicked on and I hummed silently at stoplights. It's very stealth!
2) It makes a financial statement to the capitalist system. We put our money where our mouth is. We "voted" with our dollars to elect for a flawed but sound alternative to solely gas-powered vehicles.
3) The one thing that is rock solid: it's simply better for the environment than the emissions of gas-only powered vehicles. And finally,
4) Shorty looks good in this ride!
Way to go!! Shorty does look good in her new ride! G-Man and Sweets surely agree.
The Escape has a fresh look and a new 153-horsepower, 2.3-liter, four-cylinder engine that's available with either a four-speed automatic or five-speed manual transmission. This new engine is a more viable choice for budget-conscious buyers, and like the V6, it can be matched with a new electronically controlled all-wheel-drive system. Here is what you really want to know – 36 City and 31 Highway.
When shorty arrived at a friend’s house I didn’t even bother with subtleties. I pushed her aside (Yeah whatever, move…) and I went straight for the “Green” SUV. It was about mid-sized, similar to an Isuzu Rodeo. The engine had some gadgetry I was unfamiliar with, and the fairly large battery was nestled in the back bed of the vehicle. “The battery is designed to crumble and not spill it’s contents during an impact.” G-Man exclaimed. He was obviously proud of the safety features. I kicked the tires. Check! “Let’s take it for a spin!”
When the hybrid ignition switch is turned no sound of a starting engine is made. That’s because it switches to electric when idling and stays in electric mode until it accelerates to about 25 miles per hour. The vehicle can cruise on complete electric at about 20 miles per hour. The hybrid senses how hard one presses on the throttle, and if you press firmly the gas system will initiate for extra punch. We drove around the neighborhood and it handled just like a normal SUV. It drives much like a tautly suspended sedan, with little body roll and responsive steering.Here is an excerpt why my friend likes her new ride:
I feel like it does a few things:
1) It makes a personal statement about our beliefs in alternative sources of energy. Just today, I could not contain the twinges of righteousness as my electric battery clicked on and I hummed silently at stoplights. It's very stealth!
2) It makes a financial statement to the capitalist system. We put our money where our mouth is. We "voted" with our dollars to elect for a flawed but sound alternative to solely gas-powered vehicles.
3) The one thing that is rock solid: it's simply better for the environment than the emissions of gas-only powered vehicles. And finally,
4) Shorty looks good in this ride!
Way to go!! Shorty does look good in her new ride! G-Man and Sweets surely agree.
The Escape has a fresh look and a new 153-horsepower, 2.3-liter, four-cylinder engine that's available with either a four-speed automatic or five-speed manual transmission. This new engine is a more viable choice for budget-conscious buyers, and like the V6, it can be matched with a new electronically controlled all-wheel-drive system. Here is what you really want to know – 36 City and 31 Highway.
Wednesday, August 03, 2005
Oil Shock
There sure is a lot of noise lately. Anything to keep people from thinking about Peak - which is looking more and more certain to arrive this fall and winter. There is also desperation in the bogus stories we're seeing because even the slightest attempt at verification leads to instant discredit (e.g., Bush-Cheney secretly indicted; Iran's nuclear program must be stopped now, while at the same time DoD intelligence discloses that Iran is 10 (not five) years away from the bomb; more fog out of London than the analytical eye can penetrate... et cetera). A precursor? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4744107.stm
Keep your eye on the ball.
The fact that Norwegian production is plummeting is extremely important. Norway has been the third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia for many years. Global decline is not just apparent, it's starting to scream. The fact that the US government is doing nothing to prepare its people for these shocks is despicable. The author here says it best, "I'd like to be able to tell you that the U.S. government is doing everything it can to prepare for the coming energy emergency...but I can't. In fact, when I think about how little prepared this country is for the changes that are about to hit us, my hands automatically clench into fists."
Mine too
Whiskey & Gunpowder
August 2nd, 2005
by Sean Brodrick
South Florida, U.S.A.
Whiskey & Gunpowder August 2nd, 2005 by Sean BrodrickSouth Florida, U.S.A.
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
The disconnect between what oil experts are saying and what oil is actually doing is widening to Grand Canyon proportions.
Recently, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for growth in demand in the third and fourth quarters of 2005 by 600,000 barrels per day...the International Energy Agency lowered its fourth-quarter demand for OPEC oil by 700,000 barrels per day...and Morgan Stanley economists have flat out called oil a "bubble."
Sounds bearish for oil prices, right? Not so fast. What we can observe happening in the oil markets is actually very bullish for oil prices.
For example, bookings of supertankers for oil exports from the Middle East soared to the highest monthly level this year in July -- and shipping costs doubled along the way, according to Bloomberg. Oil production in Norway -- usually the No. 3 global exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia -- has hit an 11-year-low...and China's oil-thirsty economy is humming along at 9.5% growth, shrugging off any and all efforts to slow it down.
These don't sound like the ingredients for lower demand or too much supply for me.
What's more, speaking of OPEC, the Saudis also recently told the world's leading industrial powers that OPEC will not be able to meet Western oil demand in 10-15 years. This was the first time -- ever -- that OPEC has made such an announcement.
Now consider this: What if OPEC is lowering its forecast in preparation for cutting its production quotas at its next meetings. Why would OPEC do that? Well, either it wants higher prices, or it sees difficulty in meeting current production levels starting as early as the third quarter. Either way, that's bullish for oil.
And if you think we'll be able to take care of our own energy needs ourselves without some drastic changes...think again. U.S. strategic oil reserves are equal to just 70 days of supply.
In fact, despite ratcheting back demand growth, the IEA still expects oil demand to rise to 85.9 million barrels a day by the fourth quarter of this year. That's higher than global refining capacity of about 84.5 million barrels per day. But the IEA has a history of being too optimistic -- the squeeze could come a lot sooner than Wall Street is willing to believe.
It's as if we're finally heading toward the end of the oil era. And the transition -- as we've seen at the pump recently -- may be a brutal one. The oil gauge is slowly moving toward empty...and the world's largest suppliers say they won't be able to fill us up again.
This is a core economic shift that will be an underlying trend in the financial markets -- and your daily life -- for decades. It is crucial that you understand the implications, the dangers, this shift represents.
We've seen oil crises before -- the last one most people remember is the 1973 oil embargo. But history is dotted with energy emergencies that make the oil shock of the
'70s look tame. Heck, Britain was hit hard by an "energy crisis" some 400 years ago. At the time, wood provided basic energy plus the charcoal needed to smelt iron. But the forests were quickly disappearing. Shortages got so bad that laws were passed restricting woodcutting.
Luckily, Britain made the switch to coal. Coal had been in limited use since Roman times, but when the wood shortage hit, coal was adopted to provide heat. Still, it took another century to learn how to make coke to smelt iron. The result helped spark the Industrial Revolution. In short, an energy crisis forced a seismic shift in the economy and society.
Today, we're facing another kind of energy crisis...
The largest declines in oil production last year occurred in the U.S., where output fell by 160,000 barrels a day, and in Britain, where output declined by 230,000 barrels a day. We're near the bottom of the barrel for many of America's oil fields.America imports 58% of its oil -- and we import more and more oil all the time. In fact, U.S. oil imports jumped 5.3% last year over 2003, versus a 5% rise for the world. So our dependency on oil from people who'd like to kill us is increasing, and increasing faster than the global average. The world's energy use is increasing rapidly. Global oil consumption grew by nearly 2.5 million barrels per day last year -- more than DOUBLE the 10-year average rate.Oil already pushed past the $60 mark recently, and financial markets initially plunged on the news. How will they react when oil breaks $70... $80... or Goldman Sachs' recently predicted $105 per barrel?
Most economists pull the 1970s oil crisis out as an example of how rising prices eventually crimp demand and send prices lower. But let me give you two reasons why it's different this time: China and India.
Over the last three years, China has accounted for over a third of the global increase in oil demand. As GDP increases, so does a country's oil use. And Chinese President Hu Jintao says China aims to quadruple its GDP, to $4 trillion, by 2020.
Already, China's and India's economies are roaring, and their energy use is ramping up, as their citizens are making the switch from bicycles to scooters to cars. Last year, more than 1 million cars were sold in India. Car sales there are roaring along at a 20% growth, and sales are expected to surge for another 10 years. Meanwhile, China is seeing auto sales grow by 16% a year, with 2.79 million cars and light trucks sold in the first half of this year alone. Newly mobile consumers in both countries will need oil and gas -- and lots of it.
Both these countries have roaring economies that use more and more oil every month. They are competing with the United States for global energy resources. This wasn't the case back in the last oil crunch. It could make this one drastically different.
Today's energy crisis is transforming the world -- from geopolitics to the financial markets to the gas pump to the price of 75% of everything you consume on a daily basis.
I'd like to be able to tell you that the U.S. government is doing everything it can to prepare for the coming energy emergency...but I can't. In fact, when I think about how little prepared this country is for the changes that are about to hit us, my hands automatically clench into fists.
Sincerely,
Sean Brodrick
Investment Director
The Sovereign Society
Here are some supplemental information links from Sean:
Seems like just last month (hey, it was last month!) that the Saudis said they'd pump all the oil we could want and then some. Now the Saudis are admitting there are limits.
Oil isn't the only energy source. Natural gas, nuclear, coal -- we'll need them all to get through the tough times ahead. We'll also need to learn from history. Here's a book that combines history and energy, Coal: A Human History.
Norway's oil output falls to an 11-year low. Norway's attitude: "What, me worry?".
The IEA says oil demand is to fall in the fourth quarter, and to rise in 2006.
Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie thinks oil prices may "collapse soon." He's basing it on slowing Asian demand. Good luck with that one, Andy...
Keep your eye on the ball.
The fact that Norwegian production is plummeting is extremely important. Norway has been the third largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia for many years. Global decline is not just apparent, it's starting to scream. The fact that the US government is doing nothing to prepare its people for these shocks is despicable. The author here says it best, "I'd like to be able to tell you that the U.S. government is doing everything it can to prepare for the coming energy emergency...but I can't. In fact, when I think about how little prepared this country is for the changes that are about to hit us, my hands automatically clench into fists."
Mine too
Whiskey & Gunpowder
August 2nd, 2005
by Sean Brodrick
South Florida, U.S.A.
Whiskey & Gunpowder August 2nd, 2005 by Sean BrodrickSouth Florida, U.S.A.
In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
The disconnect between what oil experts are saying and what oil is actually doing is widening to Grand Canyon proportions.
Recently, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for growth in demand in the third and fourth quarters of 2005 by 600,000 barrels per day...the International Energy Agency lowered its fourth-quarter demand for OPEC oil by 700,000 barrels per day...and Morgan Stanley economists have flat out called oil a "bubble."
Sounds bearish for oil prices, right? Not so fast. What we can observe happening in the oil markets is actually very bullish for oil prices.
For example, bookings of supertankers for oil exports from the Middle East soared to the highest monthly level this year in July -- and shipping costs doubled along the way, according to Bloomberg. Oil production in Norway -- usually the No. 3 global exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia -- has hit an 11-year-low...and China's oil-thirsty economy is humming along at 9.5% growth, shrugging off any and all efforts to slow it down.
These don't sound like the ingredients for lower demand or too much supply for me.
What's more, speaking of OPEC, the Saudis also recently told the world's leading industrial powers that OPEC will not be able to meet Western oil demand in 10-15 years. This was the first time -- ever -- that OPEC has made such an announcement.
Now consider this: What if OPEC is lowering its forecast in preparation for cutting its production quotas at its next meetings. Why would OPEC do that? Well, either it wants higher prices, or it sees difficulty in meeting current production levels starting as early as the third quarter. Either way, that's bullish for oil.
And if you think we'll be able to take care of our own energy needs ourselves without some drastic changes...think again. U.S. strategic oil reserves are equal to just 70 days of supply.
In fact, despite ratcheting back demand growth, the IEA still expects oil demand to rise to 85.9 million barrels a day by the fourth quarter of this year. That's higher than global refining capacity of about 84.5 million barrels per day. But the IEA has a history of being too optimistic -- the squeeze could come a lot sooner than Wall Street is willing to believe.
It's as if we're finally heading toward the end of the oil era. And the transition -- as we've seen at the pump recently -- may be a brutal one. The oil gauge is slowly moving toward empty...and the world's largest suppliers say they won't be able to fill us up again.
This is a core economic shift that will be an underlying trend in the financial markets -- and your daily life -- for decades. It is crucial that you understand the implications, the dangers, this shift represents.
We've seen oil crises before -- the last one most people remember is the 1973 oil embargo. But history is dotted with energy emergencies that make the oil shock of the
'70s look tame. Heck, Britain was hit hard by an "energy crisis" some 400 years ago. At the time, wood provided basic energy plus the charcoal needed to smelt iron. But the forests were quickly disappearing. Shortages got so bad that laws were passed restricting woodcutting.
Luckily, Britain made the switch to coal. Coal had been in limited use since Roman times, but when the wood shortage hit, coal was adopted to provide heat. Still, it took another century to learn how to make coke to smelt iron. The result helped spark the Industrial Revolution. In short, an energy crisis forced a seismic shift in the economy and society.
Today, we're facing another kind of energy crisis...
The largest declines in oil production last year occurred in the U.S., where output fell by 160,000 barrels a day, and in Britain, where output declined by 230,000 barrels a day. We're near the bottom of the barrel for many of America's oil fields.America imports 58% of its oil -- and we import more and more oil all the time. In fact, U.S. oil imports jumped 5.3% last year over 2003, versus a 5% rise for the world. So our dependency on oil from people who'd like to kill us is increasing, and increasing faster than the global average. The world's energy use is increasing rapidly. Global oil consumption grew by nearly 2.5 million barrels per day last year -- more than DOUBLE the 10-year average rate.Oil already pushed past the $60 mark recently, and financial markets initially plunged on the news. How will they react when oil breaks $70... $80... or Goldman Sachs' recently predicted $105 per barrel?
Most economists pull the 1970s oil crisis out as an example of how rising prices eventually crimp demand and send prices lower. But let me give you two reasons why it's different this time: China and India.
Over the last three years, China has accounted for over a third of the global increase in oil demand. As GDP increases, so does a country's oil use. And Chinese President Hu Jintao says China aims to quadruple its GDP, to $4 trillion, by 2020.
Already, China's and India's economies are roaring, and their energy use is ramping up, as their citizens are making the switch from bicycles to scooters to cars. Last year, more than 1 million cars were sold in India. Car sales there are roaring along at a 20% growth, and sales are expected to surge for another 10 years. Meanwhile, China is seeing auto sales grow by 16% a year, with 2.79 million cars and light trucks sold in the first half of this year alone. Newly mobile consumers in both countries will need oil and gas -- and lots of it.
Both these countries have roaring economies that use more and more oil every month. They are competing with the United States for global energy resources. This wasn't the case back in the last oil crunch. It could make this one drastically different.
Today's energy crisis is transforming the world -- from geopolitics to the financial markets to the gas pump to the price of 75% of everything you consume on a daily basis.
I'd like to be able to tell you that the U.S. government is doing everything it can to prepare for the coming energy emergency...but I can't. In fact, when I think about how little prepared this country is for the changes that are about to hit us, my hands automatically clench into fists.
Sincerely,
Sean Brodrick
Investment Director
The Sovereign Society
Here are some supplemental information links from Sean:
Seems like just last month (hey, it was last month!) that the Saudis said they'd pump all the oil we could want and then some. Now the Saudis are admitting there are limits.
Oil isn't the only energy source. Natural gas, nuclear, coal -- we'll need them all to get through the tough times ahead. We'll also need to learn from history. Here's a book that combines history and energy, Coal: A Human History.
Norway's oil output falls to an 11-year low. Norway's attitude: "What, me worry?".
The IEA says oil demand is to fall in the fourth quarter, and to rise in 2006.
Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie thinks oil prices may "collapse soon." He's basing it on slowing Asian demand. Good luck with that one, Andy...
Monday, August 01, 2005
Current Case Study for When Oil Runs Dry
This article proves a point made in the first article last month: Those who are prepared for the affects of peak oil will fare better than those who are not. I’m not saying that countries like the United States and Germany are prepared for an oil shortage, but their technological superiority may help absorb the shock; however we have yet to witness a sense of urgency from the powers that be. In fact, according to an article from http://www.fromthewildrness.com/, the Bush administration is attempting to find out how many people are aware of peak oil. Could this mean that he is being reactive rather than proactive in making it a public issue? What’s more the oil lobby may not appreciate peak oil candor especially since they have been quiet regarding their declining stock: perhaps our political officials have to answer to some big campaign financiers before they check in with Bobby Public. So for now ignorance is bliss.
Third world country nations will be in big trouble.
Harare, Zimbabwe's case below stems from political authoritarianism and economic mismanagement; however, it’s a good example (if you want to call it that) as to what happens when the oil I.V. is removed.
Zimbabwe's Bustle, Business Evaporate With Fuel Shortage
Crisis Compounded By Slum-Clearing
By Craig TimbergWashington Post Foreign
HARARE, Zimbabwe -- This had long been a city in motion. Corners were crammed with men offering fruit or cigarettes, restaurants were busy and plentiful, shops were well-stocked. And only the foolhardy would dare cross the traffic-clogged streets without the assistance of a green light.
But four months into a crushing fuel shortage, and more than two months since the government began a campaign to clean up slums and informal markets, the capital of about 1.4 million has slowed to a halt.
Empty cars are parked in gasoline lines that stretch for blocks. Even at rush hour, pedestrians can stroll across major boulevards without a glance in either direction. With tens of thousands of street vendors reportedly arrested, the few that remain have turned shy. Grocery stores routinely run out of cooking oil, sugar and soap. Shoppers must wait in line to buy a single loaf of bread.
Harare's bustle is gone. Even those lucky enough to have jobs, in an economy with 70 percent unemployment, have trouble getting to work because public transport has become so scarce. It is not uncommon, workers said, for their daily commute to take three or four hours each way, most of it spent waiting in line for transportation. Many have resorted to walking, rising hours before dawn and returning home well after sunset.
Zimbabwe's troubles have extended even to the skyscraper that is headquarters for President Robert Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. Once, its lighted sign confidently beamed the letters ZANU-PF bright enough to be seen for miles.
Now, the broken beacon reads ZA U F.
"Our government is hopeless," said Arnold Mapfumo, 21, a welder waiting in a line for gasoline in the suburb of Chitungwiza. "If we don't have petrol, everything stops. Everything stops. What can we do?"
Mugabe's demolition campaign, called Operation Murambatsvina or "Drive Out the Rubbish," has generated international outcry because of the brutal destruction of slums, which the United Nations estimates has made more than 700,000 people homeless. Many are sleeping amid the rubble of their homes or under plastic sheeting at government resettlement camps. A U.N. report last week called for an end to the program, which the government said it had temporarily halted.
But it is the fuel shortage that has crippled Zimbabwe, reaching across all levels of society. Manufacturers can't get their goods to market. There are reports of police commandeering just-delivered gasoline because their official supplies have dried up, and of Air Zimbabwe having to ground flights because of fuel shortages.
Major businesses have begun sending trucks across the borders into Botswana and South Africa to buy fuel. Even senior members of Mugabe's ruling party have difficulty filling their tanks, according to Pearson Mbalekwa, a former lawmaker who resigned from the party this month to protest the government's slum-clearance campaign.
So serious are the current problems that many party members are itching for an alternative, even if that means ending the reign of Mugabe, 81, a former hero in the struggle for independence. He has ruled the nation since the end of British control in 1980, and for the past five years he has been resorting to increasingly authoritarian measures, including cracking down on political dissent, closing independent newspapers and seizing land owned by white farmers.
"Maybe he has been there a little too long. Maybe he has gotten too confident of what he is doing, and maybe he is no longer listening to the wishes of the people. Because if he was, I don't think we'd be in this mess," Mbalekwa, 53, said in an interview at his home in an elegant suburb. "It's time for him to pack his bags and allow for a new leadership."
At the root of the shortages of fuel and other commodities is a lack of hard currency. The Zimbabwean dollar, which a decade ago was worth 33 U.S. cents, has plummeted. A single U.S. dollar can now be traded on the black market for $20,000 in Zimbabwean currency, making payment to international suppliers nearly impossible.
Because Zimbabwe's largest note is for $20,000, those who have money must carry around bricks of it. A fast-food burger and fries cost more than $100,000, a sit-down dinner for a family more than $1 million.
Making matters worse is the collapse of Zimbabwe's once powerful agricultural industry, which in the 1980s and 1990s exported large amounts of tobacco, fruits and vegetables, both to neighboring African countries and to Europe.
Today Zimbabwe exports little but people. As many as 3 million residents -- about one-fourth of the estimated population of 12 million -- have left, mostly heading to South Africa, where the economy is booming.
Mugabe has recently appealed to South Africa and China for $1 billion to relieve shortages of fuel and other necessities, according to news reports, but at the same time the International Monetary Fund is considering expelling Zimbabwe for non-payment of debts. Major Western donors, meanwhile, have sharply curtailed or halted most forms of aid other than food donations.
For Zimbabweans with the means to own vehicles, obtaining fuel and shepherding scarce supplies has become an all-consuming pursuit. Black-market prices are up to 10 times higher than those set by government price controls, and even those supplies are erratic.
Opinions vary about whom to blame, with many pointing to Mugabe but some Zimbabweans accepting his argument that a coalition of Western nations -- led by the country's former colonial master, Britain -- are starving the nation economically with sanctions. Such claims are made nearly every day on radio, television and in daily newspapers -- all of which are owned and run by the government.
"This is an economic war, as I see it, between the Zimbabweans and the West," said Lawrence Gwashure, a 53-year-old taxi driver who has spent most of the past three weeks in a gas line in Chitungwiza, hoping to use his battered 1973 Datsun to earn a living.
But there is no disagreement on the severity of Zimbabwe's problems: people here say life has never been harder.
Caleb Choto, 30, another cabbie, said he had spent the past month in a line waiting for fuel. Each day, he leaves his wife and 7-year-old daughter to walk more than two miles to the gas line in Chitungwiza. At the end of the day, after eating nothing for nine hours straight, he walks home full of worry that thieves will ravage his car in the night.
Choto is ready, he said, for a better economy, a new government and enough fuel to return to work.
"If it doesn't come today, I have to come back home and come tomorrow," Choto said. "I'm sick and tired of waiting."
Third world country nations will be in big trouble.
Harare, Zimbabwe's case below stems from political authoritarianism and economic mismanagement; however, it’s a good example (if you want to call it that) as to what happens when the oil I.V. is removed.
Zimbabwe's Bustle, Business Evaporate With Fuel Shortage
Crisis Compounded By Slum-Clearing
By Craig TimbergWashington Post Foreign
HARARE, Zimbabwe -- This had long been a city in motion. Corners were crammed with men offering fruit or cigarettes, restaurants were busy and plentiful, shops were well-stocked. And only the foolhardy would dare cross the traffic-clogged streets without the assistance of a green light.
But four months into a crushing fuel shortage, and more than two months since the government began a campaign to clean up slums and informal markets, the capital of about 1.4 million has slowed to a halt.
Empty cars are parked in gasoline lines that stretch for blocks. Even at rush hour, pedestrians can stroll across major boulevards without a glance in either direction. With tens of thousands of street vendors reportedly arrested, the few that remain have turned shy. Grocery stores routinely run out of cooking oil, sugar and soap. Shoppers must wait in line to buy a single loaf of bread.
Harare's bustle is gone. Even those lucky enough to have jobs, in an economy with 70 percent unemployment, have trouble getting to work because public transport has become so scarce. It is not uncommon, workers said, for their daily commute to take three or four hours each way, most of it spent waiting in line for transportation. Many have resorted to walking, rising hours before dawn and returning home well after sunset.
Zimbabwe's troubles have extended even to the skyscraper that is headquarters for President Robert Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. Once, its lighted sign confidently beamed the letters ZANU-PF bright enough to be seen for miles.
Now, the broken beacon reads ZA U F.
"Our government is hopeless," said Arnold Mapfumo, 21, a welder waiting in a line for gasoline in the suburb of Chitungwiza. "If we don't have petrol, everything stops. Everything stops. What can we do?"
Mugabe's demolition campaign, called Operation Murambatsvina or "Drive Out the Rubbish," has generated international outcry because of the brutal destruction of slums, which the United Nations estimates has made more than 700,000 people homeless. Many are sleeping amid the rubble of their homes or under plastic sheeting at government resettlement camps. A U.N. report last week called for an end to the program, which the government said it had temporarily halted.
But it is the fuel shortage that has crippled Zimbabwe, reaching across all levels of society. Manufacturers can't get their goods to market. There are reports of police commandeering just-delivered gasoline because their official supplies have dried up, and of Air Zimbabwe having to ground flights because of fuel shortages.
Major businesses have begun sending trucks across the borders into Botswana and South Africa to buy fuel. Even senior members of Mugabe's ruling party have difficulty filling their tanks, according to Pearson Mbalekwa, a former lawmaker who resigned from the party this month to protest the government's slum-clearance campaign.
So serious are the current problems that many party members are itching for an alternative, even if that means ending the reign of Mugabe, 81, a former hero in the struggle for independence. He has ruled the nation since the end of British control in 1980, and for the past five years he has been resorting to increasingly authoritarian measures, including cracking down on political dissent, closing independent newspapers and seizing land owned by white farmers.
"Maybe he has been there a little too long. Maybe he has gotten too confident of what he is doing, and maybe he is no longer listening to the wishes of the people. Because if he was, I don't think we'd be in this mess," Mbalekwa, 53, said in an interview at his home in an elegant suburb. "It's time for him to pack his bags and allow for a new leadership."
At the root of the shortages of fuel and other commodities is a lack of hard currency. The Zimbabwean dollar, which a decade ago was worth 33 U.S. cents, has plummeted. A single U.S. dollar can now be traded on the black market for $20,000 in Zimbabwean currency, making payment to international suppliers nearly impossible.
Because Zimbabwe's largest note is for $20,000, those who have money must carry around bricks of it. A fast-food burger and fries cost more than $100,000, a sit-down dinner for a family more than $1 million.
Making matters worse is the collapse of Zimbabwe's once powerful agricultural industry, which in the 1980s and 1990s exported large amounts of tobacco, fruits and vegetables, both to neighboring African countries and to Europe.
Today Zimbabwe exports little but people. As many as 3 million residents -- about one-fourth of the estimated population of 12 million -- have left, mostly heading to South Africa, where the economy is booming.
Mugabe has recently appealed to South Africa and China for $1 billion to relieve shortages of fuel and other necessities, according to news reports, but at the same time the International Monetary Fund is considering expelling Zimbabwe for non-payment of debts. Major Western donors, meanwhile, have sharply curtailed or halted most forms of aid other than food donations.
For Zimbabweans with the means to own vehicles, obtaining fuel and shepherding scarce supplies has become an all-consuming pursuit. Black-market prices are up to 10 times higher than those set by government price controls, and even those supplies are erratic.
Opinions vary about whom to blame, with many pointing to Mugabe but some Zimbabweans accepting his argument that a coalition of Western nations -- led by the country's former colonial master, Britain -- are starving the nation economically with sanctions. Such claims are made nearly every day on radio, television and in daily newspapers -- all of which are owned and run by the government.
"This is an economic war, as I see it, between the Zimbabweans and the West," said Lawrence Gwashure, a 53-year-old taxi driver who has spent most of the past three weeks in a gas line in Chitungwiza, hoping to use his battered 1973 Datsun to earn a living.
But there is no disagreement on the severity of Zimbabwe's problems: people here say life has never been harder.
Caleb Choto, 30, another cabbie, said he had spent the past month in a line waiting for fuel. Each day, he leaves his wife and 7-year-old daughter to walk more than two miles to the gas line in Chitungwiza. At the end of the day, after eating nothing for nine hours straight, he walks home full of worry that thieves will ravage his car in the night.
Choto is ready, he said, for a better economy, a new government and enough fuel to return to work.
"If it doesn't come today, I have to come back home and come tomorrow," Choto said. "I'm sick and tired of waiting."
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