Plants Think it's Spring

It’s so warm plants think spring is here Jon Ungoed-Thomas and Yuba Bessaoud Blossoms baffle gardeners

THE weather really is going haywire. Britain’s gardeners are reporting the first signs of a “phantom spring” in the midst of one of the warmest Octobers on record. Shoots of spring flowers are pushing out of the soil in England and in the even-warmer climes of the Channel Islands primroses and dog violets are blooming. Botany experts say it is likely that lilac and apple trees will be blossoming next month. Tony Kirkham, head of the arboretum at Kew Gardens, southwest London, said: “This kind of weather is very confusing for plants. Some trees will blossom as a last-minute fling before the winter and some flowers come up because they are getting such mixed messages from the weather. It makes it look like spring has come early.” The warm October has been a boon for gardeners, who are enjoying roses, crocuses and and rhododendrons in bloom. But many are bewildered by the buds on the trees and the shoots of spring bulbs also appearing. Marion McMillan, a keen gardener from Hinckley, Leicestershire, said: “It’s as if everything seems to be still in season but yet out of season. I planted a small clematis and it’s just taking off against a wall. “I’ve got a pot of daffodils showing and they were only planted a month ago. The only problem is that the greenflies are still thriving on my rose bushes.” Last year, gardeners reported a “phantom spring” in early November. Reports on a BBC website included red admiral butterflies, trees in blossom and flowering violets. Meteorologists say that the warming climate means the phenomenon is likely to become common. The possible impact of rising temperatures on the British mainland can be seen from the experiences of the Channel Islands where it was reported last week that spring flowers on Guernsey were in bloom. Bridget Ozanne, botany secretary for La Société Guernesiaise, a natural history society, said: “Some primroses are already out in the south of the island and we didn’t used to see them until December. We have also seen sea thrift pink, which is normally a spring flower.” The warmer weather means berries are fruiting earlier. Experts warned Christmas holly is less likely to have berries because they will have been eaten by the birds. The longer autumn has caused some problems for nature-lovers. Richard Hobbs, 51, chairman of the Norfolk & Norwich Horticultural Society, said: “The oaks haven’t even lost their leaves. Every year I teach a course called ‘winter identification of trees’ and it’s always held on the same weekend in October, but not a tree has lost a leaf yet. This time last year they had almost all gone. “We are still eating raspberries, they are going on and on. We haven’t got any autumn colour at all in Norfolk really.” It is not just trees and plants that are being affected. Some species are expanding their territory while it has also affected the migratory patterns of birds. A tropical species of cricket, the long-winged cone-head, was in the last century confined to stretches of coast from Dorset to Sussex. But with the warmer weather, it has crossed the Thames and reached Cambridgeshire. Sand lizards, also once confined to the south, are marching north. Other species are just confused. Brian Eversham, director of the Wildlife Trust for Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Northamptonshire, said: “There is a species of slug called the yellow slug which I have been studying for 15 years and every year the young emerge in December. “This year for the first time it was the beginning of September because the drought during the summer and the first rains in August had confused them.” Scientists say the warmer weather is evidence of long-term global warming. Last year was the hottest on record. The five months from May to September were the warmest in Britain since records began in 1659. July 2006 was the warmest month ever and it was also the hottest September. The first two weeks of October were among the warmest on record, but it is not expected to last. Temperatures are set to drop this week and there may even be a frost in Scotland. Hotspots The average temperature for October to date is 13.2C, more than 2C above average Brighton and Bournemouth have enjoyed one of their longest summer seasons, with sunbathers still soaking up the rays in mid-October. Retailers have said that the unseasonably warm weather has hampered sales of coats and woollen clothes Primroses and other spring flowers are blooming on the Channel Islands Yellow slugs in Northamptonshire are reproducing three months early because warm weather has confused them High temperatures have not kept away the rain. The Environment Agency issued 11 flood alerts in the first 10 days of October

Plants Think it's Spring

Jon Ungoed-Thomas and Yuba Bessaoud Blossoms baffle gardeners

THE weather really is going haywire. Britain’s gardeners are reporting the first signs of a “phantom spring” in the midst of one of the warmest Octobers on record. Shoots of spring flowers are pushing out of the soil in England and in the even-warmer climes of the Channel Islands primroses and dog violets are blooming. Botany experts say it is likely that lilac and apple trees will be blossoming next month. Tony Kirkham, head of the arboretum at Kew Gardens, southwest London, said: “This kind of weather is very confusing for plants. Some trees will blossom as a last-minute fling before the winter and some flowers come up because they are getting such mixed messages from the weather. It makes it look like spring has come early.” The warm October has been a boon for gardeners, who are enjoying roses, crocuses and and rhododendrons in bloom. But many are bewildered by the buds on the trees and the shoots of spring bulbs also appearing. Marion McMillan, a keen gardener from Hinckley, Leicestershire, said: “It’s as if everything seems to be still in season but yet out of season. I planted a small clematis and it’s just taking off against a wall. “I’ve got a pot of daffodils showing and they were only planted a month ago. The only problem is that the greenflies are still thriving on my rose bushes.” Last year, gardeners reported a “phantom spring” in early November. Reports on a BBC website included red admiral butterflies, trees in blossom and flowering violets. Meteorologists say that the warming climate means the phenomenon is likely to become common. The possible impact of rising temperatures on the British mainland can be seen from the experiences of the Channel Islands where it was reported last week that spring flowers on Guernsey were in bloom. Bridget Ozanne, botany secretary for La Société Guernesiaise, a natural history society, said: “Some primroses are already out in the south of the island and we didn’t used to see them until December. We have also seen sea thrift pink, which is normally a spring flower.” The warmer weather means berries are fruiting earlier. Experts warned Christmas holly is less likely to have berries because they will have been eaten by the birds. The longer autumn has caused some problems for nature-lovers. Richard Hobbs, 51, chairman of the Norfolk & Norwich Horticultural Society, said: “The oaks haven’t even lost their leaves. Every year I teach a course called ‘winter identification of trees’ and it’s always held on the same weekend in October, but not a tree has lost a leaf yet. This time last year they had almost all gone. “We are still eating raspberries, they are going on and on. We haven’t got any autumn colour at all in Norfolk really.” It is not just trees and plants that are being affected. Some species are expanding their territory while it has also affected the migratory patterns of birds. A tropical species of cricket, the long-winged cone-head, was in the last century confined to stretches of coast from Dorset to Sussex. But with the warmer weather, it has crossed the Thames and reached Cambridgeshire. Sand lizards, also once confined to the south, are marching north. Other species are just confused. Brian Eversham, director of the Wildlife Trust for Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire and Northamptonshire, said: “There is a species of slug called the yellow slug which I have been studying for 15 years and every year the young emerge in December. “This year for the first time it was the beginning of September because the drought during the summer and the first rains in August had confused them.” Scientists say the warmer weather is evidence of long-term global warming. Last year was the hottest on record. The five months from May to September were the warmest in Britain since records began in 1659. July 2006 was the warmest month ever and it was also the hottest September. The first two weeks of October were among the warmest on record, but it is not expected to last. Temperatures are set to drop this week and there may even be a frost in Scotland. Hotspots The average temperature for October to date is 13.2C, more than 2C above average Brighton and Bournemouth have enjoyed one of their longest summer seasons, with sunbathers still soaking up the rays in mid-October. Retailers have said that the unseasonably warm weather has hampered sales of coats and woollen clothes Primroses and other spring flowers are blooming on the Channel Islands Yellow slugs in Northamptonshire are reproducing three months early because warm weather has confused them High temperatures have not kept away the rain. The Environment Agency issued 11 flood alerts in the first 10 days of October

Unholy Trinity Set to Drag Us into the Abyss

I can't agree more with this article. Government leaders are more concerned with galvanizing support for resource wars as well as propping up or toppling oil dictatorships around the globe. Can you think of any democratic oil powers/gas stations that are not commanded by despots, monarchs or dictators? What government leaders and their media lap dogs should be doing is pushing for new forms of energy that will weaken oil as a primary energy source, thus eliminating the need for global adventures, government overthrows, and increased violence and terror. What we need is public awareness, but when the media chimes in unison on the popular story of the day, we end up living in an information vacuum. Something's gotta give. Tell a friend!!

Unholy Trinity Set to Drag Us into the Abyss

By
Ian Dunlop

We are about to experience the convergence of three of the great issues confronting humanity. Climate change, the peaking of oil supply and water shortage are coming together in a manner which will profoundly alter our way of life, our institutions and our ability to prosper on this planet. Each is a major issue, but their convergence has received minimal attention.

Population is the main driver. In the 60 years since World War II, the world population has grown at an unprecedented rate, from 2.5 billion to 6.5billion today, with 9 billion forecast by 2050. That growth has triggered insatiable demand for natural resources, notably water, oil and other fossil fuels. Exponential economic growth in a finite world hitting physical limits is not a new idea; we have experienced limits at a local level, but we have either side-stepped them or found short-term solutions, becoming overly confident that any global limits could be similarly circumvented.

Today, just as the bulk of the world's population is about to step on to the growth escalator, global limits emerge that are real and imminent. The weight of scientific evidence points to the fact the globe cannot support its present population, let alone an additional 2.5 billion, unless we embrace change.

Climate change, peak oil, water shortage and population are contributing to a "tragedy of the commons", whereby free access and unrestricted demand for a finite resource doom the resource through over-exploitation. The benefits of exploitation accrue to individuals, whereas the costs are borne by all.

Examples at local level abound, include overfishing and interrupting river flows for farming and irrigation. One mark of a mature society is that equitable solutions are found to the "commons" dilemma, and we have been relatively successful in doing this at local level. However as these issues become national and global, solutions become harder. For climate change, peak oil and water, the ultimate "commons" is the earth's atmosphere which we have been using as a garbage dump for carbon and other emissions.

As Aristotle said: "What is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed upon it. Everyone thinks chiefly of his own, hardly at all of the common interest." In an underpopulated world this may not matter, but in our overpopulated world it is disastrous.

Solutions require that we move beyond narrow national self-interest, take a global view and place our society and economy on a genuinely sustainable footing. Sustainability, "meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs", encompasses the entire basis upon which global society operates, not just the environment. It requires realigning our ethical framework, moving away from the winner-take-all individualism which has created so many of the "commons" problems, to a more co-operative individualism, where managing the global and local "commons" is paramount.

Rather than the negative, focusing on supposed job cuts and fear of change, we should focus on the positive: we have a unique opportunity to set humanity on a new course, built around an ethical renaissance and sustainable societies. Undoubtedly there will be pain in the short term as conventional politics, economics and business models are turned on their head. However, the tools and technologies to solve these problems are available, the cost is less than we have been led to believe, and the benefits greater. Further, change can be achieved rapidly given the right impetus.

The missing ingredients for change are acceptance of the problem, the collective will for action and genuine long-term vision and leadership. Given the dominance of short-term pragmatism in our political and corporate cultures, it is likely our leaders will continue to procrastinate and not rise to the challenge. The pressure for change must come from the community at large, where it is building toward a "tipping point" which will force a fundamental realignment of political and corporate attitudes.

Historically, this has rarely happened without a crisis. Fortunately the trinity are about to trigger that crisis with a prolonged period of "creative destruction" which will radically transform society and economy whether we like it or not. Our stark choice is either to embrace the tipping point bearing down upon us, seizing the opportunity to build a sustainable future, or fudge the issue, try to muddle through in the time-honoured manner and increasingly lose the ability to control our own affairs.

For Australia, along with many other countries, water is the priority. Resolving the water crisis will be the first test of whether we can combine long-term vision and principled leadership with the need to take the hard decisions quickly enough to stave off impending disaster. If so, it will stand us in good stead to tackle the even greater tasks ahead.

Formerly an oil, gas and coal industry executive, Ian Dunlop chaired the Australian Coal Association in 1987-88 and chaired the Experts Group on Emissions Trading of the Australian Greenhouse Office in 1999-2000.

Economic Growth Will Drive Biofuel Industry

Global demand for food and alternative fuel source - particularly in Asia - will stimulate new era say experts.

Mike Wilson

Growing demand for food to feed a more prosperous world population, and the quest for alternative fuel sources to supply expanding energy needs, will fuel the development of a new era in bioenergy, say experts gathered in St. Louis this week to discuss renewable fuels. And the key area to watch is Asia. Patricia Woertz, CEO, Archer Daniels Midland “Economic growth is driving these developments,” notes Patricia Woertz, CEO of Archer Daniels Midland, a leading supplier of ethanol. “Global real GDP growth is expected to average 3.8% annually through 2030. But it is economic growth in Asia projected to average 5.5% per year that is shaping world scenarios - in particular China, with a 6% GDP followed by India at 5.4%.” Woertz and other blue-ribbon speakers addressed an audience of 1,300 at the Advancing Renewable Energy Conference, jointly sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Department of Agriculture. She says incomes are rising in Asia and societal change is following a familiar path: people migrating from rural to urban areas and improving their diets along with incomes. And energy consumption is rising. “China is already the second largest oil importer in the world and represents over 30% of the annual increase in oil consumption,” she says. “Most of the growth is happening in the transportation sector. With car sales topping 5 million last year, China is already the world’s third largest car market after the U.S. and japan, and some auto industry analysts expect China to surpass Japan in the next two or three years.” Long term projections While these trends could be upset by geopolitical turmoil or economic recession, there’s no doubt long-term growth in Asia will reverberate elsewhere. “By the middle of this century demand for food will double,” says Woertz. “Also by mid-century, energy from traditional sources will be insufficient to meet projected global demand. Traditional refining capacity, in both the U.S. and globally, will also be insufficient to meet motor fuel demand.” To meet projected demand for fuel through 2015, the world would have to add capacity of 9.5 million barrels a day - the equivalent of four new refineries as I as the largest refineries in the world - every year for nine years. However, the United States has not built one new refinery in the last 30 years. That’s why alternative fuels are needed. But how big should that market become? “The answer to that question will be significantly influenced by the desire for energy security, for strong ag economies and for environmental improvement,” says Woertz. “These desires are already shaping world energy policies and driving market growth.” Woertz cautions anyone who may discount the potential expansion opportunities for ethanol or biodiesel based on current technologies. Those will change and get better, she predicts. She compares biofuels to the automotive industry at the start of the 20th century, or the microchip industry in the 1980s. “They were budding industries with enormous potential over an undetermined timeframe,” she concludes. “And within these industries, technological innovation drove change and with this change came significant improvements in product quality, in cost to consumers, and in the quality of life.”

Arctic Sees Near-Record Melt in 2006

By CLAYTON SANDELL

Oct. 4, 2006 — Summers in the Arctic Circle could be ice-free in about 50 years if current melting trends continue, according to new projections by scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

What causes alarm among scientists is the rate at which the summer arctic sea ice is disappearing, at about 8.6 percent per decade.

At that rate, scientists warn, the Arctic could be completely free of ice by about 2060 — about a decade earlier than had been previously predicted.

"If this pattern continues, we're going to lose it pretty soon," said Mark Serreze, an arctic climate research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder Colo.

In 2006, a pattern of "sharply declining" arctic sea ice continued, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, and nearly broke the 2005 record.

Researchers point out that for the first six months of this year, the amount of sea ice was well below the 2005 minimum, thanks to warm winter temperatures and unusually high temperatures in July. Had August not been unusually cool and stormy, Serreze said, 2006 would have almost certainly broken the 2005 record for minimum sea ice extent.

"Clearly, the sea ice is not feeling well," Serreze said.

Since the 1960s, sea ice has also become thinner. It's lost on average 10 to 15 percent of its thickness, and as much as 40 percent is some areas, according to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in balancing Earth's temperatures. Air and ocean currents carry heat energy away from the tropic regions to the Arctic, which acts as a sort of air conditioner. Without it, said scientists, the tropics would overheat.

The Arctic region is particularly vulnerable to warming. The white sea ice reflects much of the sun's heat back into space. But as melting occurs, the white ice is replaced by darker ocean water that absorbs more heat energy, which in turn causes increased warming. It's called a feedback loop.

In addition to sea ice, scientists say the effects of global warming can be seen all over the Arctic region. Areas of permafrost are thawing, the Greenland ice sheet— 2 miles thick in some places — has accelerated.

The melting ice also deprives polar bears of the habitat they need to hunt.